Climate Change
What is climate change?
Climate Change is one of the most serious threats facing Scotland and the world today.
Climate refers to the average weather experienced over a long period, typically 30 years. The term climate change usually refers to changes that have occurred since the early 1900s. The Earth's climate has changed many times in response to natural causes.
Due to past emissions, a certain degree of climate change is now unavoidable. It is widely accepted that climate change is already being felt in Scotland.
Effects of changing weather patterns in Scotland will vary depending on the severity of global warming but even at the low end of the spectrum, the impacts are going to be significant.
Natural and human factors both affect global climate.
Natural causes include interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, changes in the Earth's orbit and volcanic eruptions.
Humans influence global climate by releasing greenhouse gases – like carbon dioxide and methane – into the atmosphere.
These gases absorb energy that is radiated from the Earth's surface, warming the atmosphere and increasing temperatures globally.
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world's most authoritative body on climate change, concluded that "most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gas concentrations".
How is global climate changing?
Temperatures have risen by about 0.74°C on average across the globe from 1906 to 2005.
2007 was the joint 2nd warmest year on record and the 14 warmest years since 1880 have all occurred since 1990 (IPCC).
The examples below show what could happen extending up to the end of the 21st century assuming no specific climate policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions occur.
Europe – Coastal flooding related to increasing storminess and sea-level rise is likely to threaten up to 1.6 million additional people annually.
Africa - The population at risk of increased water stress in Africa is projected to be between 75-250 million and 350-600 million people by the 2020s and 2050s, respectively.
USA - Water-borne diseases and degraded water quality are very likely to increase with more heavy precipitation. Climate change is likely to increase risk and geographic spread of vector-borne infectious diseases, including Lyme disease and West Nile virus (Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, IPCC).
Scotland’s changing climate
Historical climate trends in Scotland
The Handbook of "Climate Trends Across Scotland" analysed climate data recorded in Scotland over the past century and identified trends in climate change providing a valuable benchmark against which we can measure future climate change. Significant changes recorded across Scotland since 1961 include:
Temperature: Temperatures have risen in every season and in all parts of Scotland;
Rainfall: Scotland had become 20% wetter by 2004, with an increase of almost 70% in precipitation in northern Scotland; there is a trend of increasing rainfall intensity in both East and West Scotland.
Snow cover: The snow season has shortened across the country, with the season starting later and finishing earlier in the year. The greatest reductions have occurred in northern and western Scotland;
Growing season: The growing season length has increased significantly, with the greatest change occurring at the beginning of the season; and all regions have seen an increase of more than four weeks in the length of the growing season since 1961.
Days of frost: There has been more than a 25% reduction in the number of days of frost (both air and ground frost) across the country.
Expected Impacts in Scotland
The UK Climate Projections 2009 have been created to help the UK to plan for a changing climate. The Projections contain information on observed and future climate change, based on the latest scientific understanding and the Key findings for Scotland in 2080 under a medium carbon emissions scenario the following climate changes are possible:
Annual temperatures across Scotland will rise by up to 3.5ºC in the summer and 2.5ºC in the winter.
Summers will become generally drier across Scotland. There may only be a slight reduction in rainfall in the north-west but as much as a 40% reduction in the south and east.
Scotland's sea levels will rise, perhaps by up to 600 mm around the mainland.
More extreme rainfall events, with rainfall in 24 hours from storms expected to occur on average every two years up by 25% in the east.
Average snowfall amount decrease - by up to 90% less depending on location and snowless winters may become normal in some parts.
Climate change could also bring some unexpected benefits which include;
Scotland's growing season will become longer, by between 30 and 80 days.
Less energy required to heat homes.
Less cold related deaths.
Warmer weather could help tourist trade.
What is Scotland doing to tackle Climate Change?
There area number of statutory and non statutory drivers and initiatives which highlight the need for action on adaptation work on climate change.
In 2007 all of Scotland's 32 local authorities signed up to Scotland's Climate Change Declaration.
Signatories to Scotland's Climate Change Declaration acknowledge the reality and importance of climate change and are committed to:
1. Mitigating their impact on climate change through reducing greenhouse gas emissions
2. Taking steps to adapt to the unavoidable impacts of a changing climate
3. Working in partnership with their communities to respond to climate change
The Declaration recognises that Scottish local authorities play a key role in our collective response to the challenge of climate change, and publicly demonstrates their commitment to action.
Scotland’s Climate Change Act 2009 has created the statutory framework for greenhouse gas emissions reductions in Scotland by setting an interim 42 per cent reduction target for 2020, with the power for this to be varied based on expert advice, and an 80 per cent reduction target for 2050. To help ensure the delivery of these targets, this part of the Act also requires that the Scottish Ministers set annual targets, in secondary legislation, for Scottish emissions from 2010 to 2050.
Scotland's Climate Change Adaptation Framework was published on December 8, 2009. It will play a vital role in building Scotland's resilience to the changing climate. The Framework sets the strategic direction for Scottish Government actions but, because many adaptation decisions are taken at a local level by individual organisations, action from across all sectors is needed.
What is happening at the local level?
Scotland's Climate Change Declaration
This commits Angus Council to making concerted efforts to address climate change which will see us:
Work with the Scottish Executive and the UK Government to contribute to the delivery of Scotland's and the UK's Climate Change Programmes, including to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to future climate change scenarios.
Produce and publicly declare a plan, with targets and time-scales, to achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from our own operations. This will include our energy use and sourcing, travel and transportation, waste production and disposal, estate management, procurement of goods and services, and improved staff awareness.
Ensure that greenhouse gas reduction and climate change adaptation measures are clearly incorporated into our new and existing strategies, plans and programmes, in line with sustainable development principles.
Assess the risks and opportunities for our services and our communities of predicted climate change scenarios and impacts, and take action to adapt accordingly and in line with sustainable development principles.
Encourage and work with others in our local community to take action to adapt to the impact of climate change, to reduce their own greenhouse gas emissions and to make public their commitment to action.
Publish an annual statement on the monitoring and progress of our climate change response, detailing targets set, actions taken, outcomes achieved and further actions required.
Collaborate with other organisations to promote good practice on climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Carbon Management Programme
In order to help us address the commitments in the Declaration, Angus Council applied to and has been accepted onto the Carbon Trust's Carbon Management Programme. Consultants help participating local authorities with workshops, meetings and other support tailored around a 5 step process:
a systematic analysis of our carbon footprint
a calculation of the value at stake and the case for taking action
an assessment of opportunities to help manage carbon emissions
Lead by example - influencing business and the community.
Development of structured action plans for realising carbon savings and embedding carbon management in your authority's day to day business.
Other pieces of legislation that Angus Council services and partners are in the process of implementing are relevant to climate change adaptation include;
Flood Risk Management Act 2009
Angus Council Shoreline Management Plan
Tayside Biodiversity Action Plan
Nature Conservation (Scotland) Act 2004
Angus Local Development Plan Review 2009 / future Angus Local Development Plan
Angus Local Climate Impact Profile (LCLIP)
A Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) is a resource that Local Authorities can compile so that they better understand their exposure to weather and climate. It is based on evidence of a locality's vulnerability to severe weather events and in particular how these events affected a local community as well as the authority's assets and capacity to deliver services. In July 2009 Angus Council elected to participate in the LCLIP project. The Scottish and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research (SNIFFER) provided funding to employ a temporary researcher to carry out a media search of weather events reported for the region. The report summarises the findings of Angus Council LCLIP media search, the affect of weather events and also the response of the local authority and community partners. Below is a summary of the process and findings. To access the report click on the image below.
Project Objectives
Catalogue extreme weather events in the Angus region since 2001
Log Angus Council's, community partners and selected business or recreation responses to extreme weather conditions
Assess Angus's vulnerability to weather events;
Inform decision making on effectiveness of responses;
Assist awareness raising in staff , community partners and the public;
Contribute information towards a Service approach for adapting to the impacts of climate change;
Project Focus
The project focused on extreme weather incidents in Angus and the affects for the Angus Council and its partners. "Weather" can be described as "the state of the atmosphere at a given locality and time". It should not be confused with climate. Climate is the average weather in a locality over a thirty year period. The LCLIPS project assessed weather events, in Angus over an eight year period since 2001.
Any media news items covering events that occurred as a direct result of the local weather is classed as an "Extreme weather event". Types of weather include;
Heavy rain – often including flooding, High seas, Snow, hail or ice, Lightning or electrical storm, Temperature - high or low, High winds, Drought
LCLIP Media trawl findings – data analysis
The data collected from the media trawl shown on the previous pages can also be summarised in a form at which at a glance gives us an idea of what patterns underlie weather events in Angus, their impacts and who most is at risk.
For further information on the Angus LCLIP please contact Kelly Ann Dempsey at dempseyk@angus.gov.uk
For more information on climate change and what you can do to help reduce its effects, have a look at the links listed below:
Contact:
Forward Plans – Environmental Strategy, Planning and Transport
Direct Dial: 01307 473258